Entradas y cosas útiles

Sólo es una colección de algunas entradas, propias o ajenas, que enlazo con frecuencia porque resultan de utilidad. Para tenerlas juntas a mano. Irá creciendo. También gráficos sueltos de uso frecuente.

Modelos climáticos / realidad.

Satélites, baja troposfera:

Superficie Cowtan - Way / HadCrut4, desde Clive Best. Clic para ampliar.

Zeke's Wonder Plot

Cita:

“Principles governing IPCC work
The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.” https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf

Cita:

Cita:

Datos (versión 2016)

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La evidencia

De nuevo la imaginaria “evidencia” del cuento del Calentamiento Global Acojonante

Esta es muy buena, porque es completa. Artículo en el New York Times, de periodista “enterado” pero asesorado por Raymond Pierrehumbert, uno de los más renombrados pilares de la teoría alarmista.

¿Es razonable pensar que provocamos “calentamiento global” con el CO2? ¿Y que sea un problema?

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Modelos climáticos y p*** realidad; ¿se entienden los gráficos?

Gavin Schmidt intenta justificar los modelos:

Troposfera media global:

Troposfera media tropical:

modelos-climaticos-y-realidad-tmt-trop-gavin-curry

tropical-temperature-trends-troposphere-ams-2017

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/suppl/10.1175/2017BAMSStateoftheClimate.1/suppl_file/10.1175_2017BAMSStateoftheClimate.2.pdf

Superficie: modelos-climaticos-y-realidad-superficie-gavin-curry

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Bates 2016

Estimating climate sensitivity using two-zone energy balance models

. Recently, attempts have been made to refine the EfCS approach by using two-zone (tropical/extratropical) EBMs. When applied using satellite radiation data, these give low and tightly constrained EfCS values, in the neighborhood of 1°C

Más:

The art and science of climate model tuning

Más (Krastov)

Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5 simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

En WUWT:

Another paper shows that climate models and climate reality vary – greatly

Más:

Robert Brown sobre los modelos (a partir de la mitad)

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/06/real-science-debates-are-not-rare/

Hansen:

Laepple y Huybers 2014:

Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model–data differences at decadal and longer periods

Junio 2017: El efecto iris de Lindzen revisitado:

Revisiting the iris effect of tropical cirrus clouds with TRMM and A-Train satellite data

Tsonis y caos:

C. Essex, A.A. Tsonis, Model falsifiability and climate slow modes

Septiembre 2018, McItrick y Christie:

A Test of the Tropical 200-300hPaWarming Rate in Climate Models

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Estudios sobre sensibilidad climática ordenados en el tiempo.

sensibilidad-climatica-equilibrio-estudios-recientes

sensibilidad-climatica-modelos-observaciones

Cambio por nuevas estimaciones frozamiento aerosoles (Stevens y Malavelle et al 2017):

http://www.staatvanhetklimaat.nl/2013/09/14/nic-lewis-response-will-hit-met-office-like-a-boomerang/

Modelos con y sin “maquillaje”:

modeled-and-observed-global-temperature-with-and-without-makeup3

https://patricktbrown.org/2017/07/10/modeled-vs-observed-global-temperature-with-and-without-makeup/

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.465/full

Using feedback parameters from Figure 8.14, it can be estimated that in the presence of water vapour, lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks, but in the absence of cloud feedbacks, current GCMs would predict a climate sensitivity (±1 standard deviation) of roughly 1.9°C ± 0.15°C (ignoring spread from radiative forcing differences). The mean and standard deviation of climate sensitivity estimates derived from current GCMs are larger (3.2°C ± 0.7°C) essentially because the GCMs all predict a positive cloud feedback (Figure 8.14) but strongly disagree on its magnitude.

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Graeme Stephens, O’Brien, Webster, Pilewskie, Kato, Li:

Is the Earth’s climate system constrained?*+

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Narrowing bounds ECS (Bjorn Stevens et al)

Comentado en:

El consenso, por fin, pensando en modo ciencia (y ahora empieza la discusión)

Consenso (Verheggen):

Consenso Bray & von Storch 2013

José Duarte:

The climate science consensus is 78 – 84 percent

Muy relacionado: Lorenz sobre el problema del caos y la “atribución”, extractos de Judith Curry:

Words of wisdom from Ed Lorenz

Beneficios bien observados y medidos del Calentamiento Global Acojonante:

Reverdecimiento:

El reverdecimiento del planeta y sus causas (el 70% es por el CO2)

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Li et al 2017:

Quantification of the response of global terrestrial net primary production to multifactor global change

En el Sahel, lluvia. Mediciones locales:

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/data_sets/sahel/ (doi:10.6069/H5MW2F2Q)

El CO2 y la fotosíntesis (en plantas C3) de Kimball et al 1993. fotosintesis-y-co2

Y la eficiencia en el uso del agua (C3 -maiz- y C4 -soja-)

https://buythetruth.wordpress.com/2009/06/13/photosynthesis-and-co2-enrichment/

Más:

Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake

Más entradas e la plaza sobre la bendición del CO2 extra para las plantas y la vida:

/categories/fertilizacion-co2/

La inexistente relación entre los huracanes y el calentamiento global

Recopilación en Fabius Maximus:

What you need to know & are not told about hurricanes

Menos muertes debidas a la temperatura

Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study

All regions showed more annual cold related mortality than heat related mortality. Some of those who died in the heat may not have lived long if a heat wave had not occurred. Mortality often falls below baseline for several days after the end of a heat wave, and this has been interpreted as indicating that some of the people dying during the heat wave were already close to death. Some of the excess deaths in the cold may have resulted from non-thermal seasonal factors such as winter diet, but deaths due to such factors are likely to be few. Falls in temperature in winter are closely followed by increased mortality, with characteristic time courses for different causes of death. The increases are of sufficient size to account for the overall increase in mortality in winter, suggesting that most excess winter deaths are due to relatively direct effects of cold on the population.

Our data suggest that any increases in mortality due to increased temperatures would be outweighed by much larger short term declines in cold related mortalities.

Deaths Attributed to Heat, Cold, and Other Weather Events in the United States, 2006–2010

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Varios:

¿Qué diablos negamos los "negacionistas"?

Calentamiento Global para Imma

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Nivel del mar:

Nivel del mar. Último estudio, muy esperado, sin noticias del CO2. 19 cm / siglo, sin aceleración.

Jevrejeva

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Y con todos los fozamientos que imaginan, en W/m²:

Descompuestos así:

Sólo los naturales:

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Es muy típico de los alarmistas decir que desde 1993 (lo miden también los satélites) la tasa de subida del nivel del mar (como 3,1) es como mayor que la del siglo XX (como 1,9). Y por tanto … ¡se está acelerando! Muéstrales este gráfico para darles en el morro.

Más:

Dean y Houston: Recent sea level trends and accelerations: Comparison of tide gauge and satellite results

Whether the increased sea level trend of approximately 3 mm/year measured by the satellites since the 1990's is a long-term increase from the 20th Century value of approximately 1.7 mm/year or part of a cycle will require longer records; however, the negative accelerations support some cyclic character.

Más:

Chen, Feng y Huang: Global sea level trend during 1993–2012

GMSL started decelerated rising since 2004 with rising rate 1.8 ± 0.9 mm/yr in 2012.
Deceleration is due to slowdown of ocean thermal expansion during last decade.

Recent ENSO events introduce large uncertainty of long-term trend estimation.

Más:

Coastal planning should be based on proven sea level data. A. Parker, C.D. Ollier

Más:

Dr. Jerry Mitrovica's 23 gold standard tide stations with minimal VLM, suggested by Dr. Bruce Douglas

Más. Cálculo de servilleta de subida nivel del mar en 100 años y +3ºC (sale muy parecido que IPCC 2007 - 29 cm.):

Melting Away

PSMSL

http://www.psmsl.org/

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Temperatura hemisferio norte proxies (cum grano salis) Ljungqvist 2010: temperatura-2000-anos-ljungqvist

Keith Briffa (email 0938018124.txt):

There is still a potential problem with non-linear responses in the very recent period of some biological proxies ( or perhaps a fertilisation through high CO2 or nitrate input) . I know there is pressure to present a nice tidy story as regards 'apparent unprecedented warming in a thousand years or more in the proxy data' but in reality the situation is not quite so simple. We don't have a lot of proxies that come right up to date and those that do (at least a significant number of tree proxies ) some unexpected changes in response that do not match the recent warming. I do not think it wise that this issue be ignored in the chapter.
For the record, I do believe that the proxy data do show unusually warm conditions in recent decades. I am not sure that this unusual warming is so clear in the summer responsive data. I believe that the recent warmth was probably matched about 1000 years ago.

Anchukaitis et al 2017:

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Ártico. Kaufman, Pages 2k.

Ljungqvist + Kaufman

Lo último de Kobashi / Summit - Groenlandia:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01451-7#supplementary-information

Mangerud 2017 + Alley 2000 + Kobashi 2010

http://sci-hub.tw/10.1177/0959683617715701

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Coral:

El coral sufre por el “cambio climático” … ¿de verdad?

Y las islas del Pacífico que desaparecen:

¡Oh!, las islas del Pacífico se hunden de nuevo (mentira podrida)

De Duvat 2018, las islas de más de 10 Ha.

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Mechanisms of reef coral resistance to future climate change

Coral Reefs, Temperature and Ocean ph (desde Georgiou et al, 2015)

Lo que le importa la acidificación al coral (nada). El asunto cambia enteramente cuando se hacen experimentos en el medio natural en lugar de laboratorios.